arnoldcam

Life as I know it… plus commentary

And Missouri predicts….

with 3 comments

photo_lg_missouri.jpg

I’d like to talk about an unusual phenomenon I’ve heard about but only just recently looked into more.  (That’s right, y’all can keep waiting for a post Super Bowl game write up 😛 ).

Did you know that Missouri has correctly called the winner of the presidential race very year since 1904 except for one (1956 with Adlai Stevenson).  This is known as the Missouri bellwether effect.  You can read more about it at Wikipedia.

OK.  Let’s say this continues on for one more election.  What happened there on Super Tuesday?  Well, here’s how it broke down:

Obama: 405,284 votes
The Clintons: 395,287
McCain: 194,304
Huckabee: 185,627
Romney: 172,564

down party lines, it goes like this:

Democrats above: 800,571 (57.6%)
Republican above: 552,495 (39.8%)
remaining Democrats & Republicans: (2.6%)

If I read the numbers right, and if Missouri continues to predict accurately, then I think Obama wins it.  Maybe it is time for a change.

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Written by arnold

February 7, 2008 at 1:14 am

Posted in Politics

3 Responses

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  1. It is an interesting phenomenon that I remember reading about eeons ago in my Poli Sci classes at CSUF. I believe it will be an accurate predictor. It’ll be a close one, but I think Obama will win this overall.

    Kim

    February 7, 2008 at 1:56 am

  2. That is pretty amazing. I’ve never heard of it.

    Of course, it’s a little like seeing 25 of the last 26 spins on the roulette wheel come up green. Does that mean another green? Or does it mean that red is “due”? Likely it doesn’t mean anything, but I’m hoping the trend continues.

    Alright, this issues is settled. Let’s move on to a little Superbowl recap…

    The Kyle

    February 7, 2008 at 3:40 am

  3. Hey Kim… you went to CSF? So did I 🙂 I visited there recently and can’t believe how many new buildings there are now. That campus used to feel open and airy and now’s its like a metropolitan downtown. And there’s 18 times more people now (or at least it feels like it.. the real number is close to 50% more than when I was going there, 25k up to 37k. Bet people are killing each other now for parking.)

    And you Kyle… I can’t imagine going through the effort of posting a recap. No body would comment on something that’s over and done with like that game.

    arnold

    February 7, 2008 at 5:53 pm


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