arnoldcam

Life as I know it… plus commentary

Debate stats

with 6 comments

The results are in and things are looking worse and worse for the McCain camp.  My guess is he challenges Obama to a no holds barred wrestling match in the third debate.

From CNN:

A national poll of debate watchers suggests that Sen. Barack Obama won the second presidential debate.

Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain sparred about domestic policy during their second presidential debate.  

Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain sparred about domestic policy during their second presidential debate.

54% said that Obama did the best job in the debate, with 30% saying Sen. John McCain performed better.

64% had a favorable opinion of Obama after the debate, up 4 points from before the event. 51% had a favorable opinion of McCain after the debate, unchanged from before its start.

A majority said Obama seemed to be the stronger leader during the debate, 54 percent to 43 percent, and by a more than 2-to-1 ratio — 65% to 28% — viewers thought Obama was more likable during the debate.

A majority of debate watchers polled thought Obama was more intelligent, by a 57 percent to 25 percent margin over McCain. Debate watchers also thought Obama more clearly expressed his views by a 2-to-1 ratio, 60 percent to 30 percent.
Debate watchers questioned thought McCain, rather than Obama, spent more time attacking his opponent, with 63 percent saying McCain went more on the attack, as opposed to just 17 percent saying Obama.

Half of those polled said Obama answered questions more directly, 13 points ahead of McCain, and by a 14-point margin, debate watchers thought Obama seemed to care more about the problems of audience members who asked questions

McCain did come out on top in one category that neither candidate wants to win. By a 16-point margin, debate watchers thought the Arizona senator seemed more like a typical politician during the debate.

The poll suggests that independent voters thought Obama won the debate. Fifty-four percent of those identifying themselves as independents said the Illinois senator performed best, with 28 percent saying that McCain did the better job.

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Written by arnold

October 8, 2008 at 8:43 am

Posted in Politics

6 Responses

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  1. Quit listening to CNN! LOL! And according to an average of the polls, Obama’s not ahead by 8 points.

    Kim

    October 8, 2008 at 2:35 pm

  2. Ha 🙂

    I have to watch CNN. I can’t stand Fox or MSNBC. And you’re right about the 8 points. It was 8 points the other day but now it’s closer to 6 or 7.

    Some poll stats from the day before the debate for ya:

    Here’s our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Going into last night’s debate, Obama’s significant lead over John McCain was holding steady:

    • Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-42% Obama lead yesterday. At 11 points, this is Obama’s widest lead in the Gallup poll for this whole campaign so far.

    • Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead yesterday. That number from yesterday was Obama’s all-time highest lead in Rasmussen.

    • Hotline/Diageo: Obama 45%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 46%-44% Obama lead yesterday. Note: This poll’s partisan weighting a few days ago was 41% Dem to 36% GOP, but has been changed to 40% Dem and 38% GOP.

    • Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-41% Obama lead yesterday.

    • Zogby: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.8% margin of error, compared to a 48%-45% Obama lead yesterday. This is the second day for Zogby’s daily tracking poll, and the first day that we’re including it in our TPM Track Composite.

    Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 49.7%-43.2%, compared to a 50.2%-43.2% Obama lead yesterday. Bear in mind that this polling is all from before last night’s debate. As such, it does not tell us about the post-debate race, but instead provides us a baseline against which we can measure polls over the next few days.

    Arnold

    October 8, 2008 at 4:13 pm

  3. Polls aside — you know my feeling on polls — I think we may be in for a Reagan-esque landslide. The fact that we’re rehashing Bil Ayers for like the third time tells me McCain’s all out of message, and I think people know it. And as ambiguous as polls can be, I haven’t seen one that trends toward McCain in any important state.

    (And I tried to look this up, but aren’t these polls conducted through landlines? Wouldn’t that skew the results?)

    the kyle

    October 9, 2008 at 7:08 am

  4. I read that from Newser as well. Also, Jamie Lynn Spears is not pregnant.

    arnold

    October 9, 2008 at 8:06 am

  5. Also just saw on Slate that WV is the only battleground state left that’s leaning McCain. McCain’s lead there is at 4.5% and dropping every week. All this according to polls, of course.

    I put the over/under of Obama’s electoral votes in Nov. at 350. Any takers?

    the kyle

    October 9, 2008 at 11:32 am

  6. I’ll take that. I’m going to say it’s closer to 325.

    And I hope you remember that I told you along time ago it would be a landslide to which you customarily sniffed with disdain.

    arnold

    October 9, 2008 at 12:45 pm


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